Fallujah Offensive

Third Battle of Fallujah (2016)

Introduction

The city of Fallujah in Iraq had been under ISIS control since January of 2014. Two years later, on February 2, 2016, Iraqi forces cut off all supply lines to the city, beginning the Siege of Fallujah. Over the next three months, the military tightened the siege, steadily taking suburbs and towns on the outskirts, and securing the bridges into the river-edged city. At least 4-600 ISIS fighters fled the area as Iraqi forces moved inward. The cutting of the supply lines led to concerns that the 50,000 civilians trapped there might starve or freeze in the winter, leading to pressure to end the siege. On May 22nd, Iraqi forces announced Operation Breaking Terrorism and warned civilians to flee the city through designated routes or to raise white flags. The following day, Iraqi forces advanced, beginning the Third Battle of Fallujah. Because the offensive was announced with only one day's notice, civilians had limited opportunity to flee. Iraqi forces entered the city by the end of May. Over the next month, forces advanced, finally clearing the city by June 29th.

This map shows the number destinations of families fleeing from Anbar in the time surrounding the liberation. We can see that many families remained within Anbar, fleeing close-by. We also see that Ninawa, another governorate with high levels of violence and ISIS presence, was not a popular destination despite its proximity. After the offensive, the number of IDPs from Anbar residing around Iraq decreased, perhaps because some families returned, or perhaps because there were fewer families fleeing Anbar after the liberation of Fallujah to replace those who had moved a second time.

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* Click names of variables to hide/show bars
These two graphs compare twitter signals in each language to the number of families who have fled Anbar. Each signals is correlated with movement.

* Click names of variables to hide/show lines

Detailed Table of Family Movements from Ninawa Governorate